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(Nate Silver) – I’m a big fan of revealed preference: watch what people do, not what they say. Especially in a world where survey research is increasingly coming into question, sometimes unfairly, seeing how people vote with their feet can get us closer to ground truth.
And here a truth that some of my progressive readers might find uncomfortable: Americans love Florida. Lots of people are moving there, and relatively few people are leaving.
But let’s start by talking about my own revealed preference. However cagey I might be about it, my revealed preference says that I like Florida, too — or more specifically, that I like Miami. The first trip that I made by plane after the pandemic was to a poker tournament at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood, Florida, about 25 miles north of Miami proper.
Now, this was a work trip: I was beginning research on my book. And in having one of North America’s better casinos, plus being the country’s de facto crypto capital, and generally being a risk-on place, South Florida hits on several of the themes that the On The Edge covers. But — more revealed preference — my partner and I also thought about a Miami condo at one point. It does have its charms: a good art scene, great poker games — Florida Man is always someone you want at your table — and a lot of cultural, demographic and political diversity.
It also has aspects that are not so charming. As someone who’s more sensitive to humidity than heat — I’m convinced that most people are the same way and the…
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